The Role of LULUCF Monitoring in the National Inventory System for Reaching Climate Neutrality Goals

Abstract

ENG: The LULUCF sector in the greenhouse gas inventory structure is of particular interest due to its dual capacity to both produce and absorb greenhouse gases (GHG). This study conducts a comparative analysis of the actual and forecasted potential of the LULUCF sector in the overall structure of GHG emissions for European countries and Ukraine. It was found that from 1990 to 2010, the LULUCF sector showed a trend toward GHG absorption, whereas from 2011 to 2021, it became a net source of emissions. According to official data from Ukraine’s NIR, LULUCF sector values ranged from -31.4 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 14.2 MtCO₂e in 2021, with a peak of 24.9 MtCO₂e in 2018. This imbalance is directly linked to agro-technological approaches in agriculture and losses in the Forest Land use category. Over the past 10 years, a decreasing trend in GHG absorption has been observed for EU countries as well. Using predictive and comparative data analysis methods, the potential for GHG emissions/absorption by the LULUCF sector in Ukraine over the next decade was calculated. Based on the current data set, there is a high likelihood that the LULUCF sector will tend toward producing GHG emissions in the near future. However, the implementation of effective institutional approaches could improve these prospects. The potential of the LULUCF sector could play a more significant role in the overall architecture of national climate policy, especially considering Ukraine's substantial agricultural potential.

UKR: Порівняльний аналіз фактичного та прогнозованого потенціалу сектору ЗЗЛГ у загальній структурі викидів ПГ для європейських країн та України.