Forecasting the number of oriental fruit moth

Abstract

Among the complex of pests in peach orchards, which cause significant damage to the crop during the growing season, fruit-damaging species are of paramount importance, the most dangerous of which is the oriental fruit moth (Grapholitha molesta Busck.). Continuous long-term monitoring of the seasonal dynamics of the pest's flight makes it possible to predict its number in plantations depending on the weather conditions of a particular period. Correlation-regression analysis of long-term monitoring of seasonal flight dynamics of pest butterflies allowed to establish the minimum and optimal air temperatures, which contribute to the active flight of imagoes of oriental fruit moth in spring and summer. It is established that in the conditions of the Southern Steppe of Ukraine the first butterflies of the species are noted in pheromone traps at an average decadal air temperature of 9.70C and relative air humidity not more than 89.3%. According to the forecast, an increase in temperature above 17.30C contributes to an intensive increase in the number of insects. The equation developed this way will provide an opportunity to predict the degree of threat by the pest and can serve as a component for building an integrated system of protection of peach orchards from the oriental fruit moth.