Доведення залежності між рівнем економічного росту та рівнем економічної безпеки України

Abstract

UK: У статті доведена гіпотеза існування залежності між рівнем економічного росту та рівнем економічної безпеки України методом кореляційно-регресивного аналізу. Обґрунтована доцільність оцінки рівня економічної безпеки в системі факторів економічного росту як інформативно-аналітичної бази розробки стратегії економічного розвитку України. EN: Ensuring competitive economic growth, increasing the level of gross domestic product per capita are standard tasks for any country in the world and are the basis of its sustainable development. Ensuring national and economic security is also an obvious function of every state. The problem is how to harmonize the solution of these problems and develop an integrated strategy for economic development and ensuring its economic security, taking into account the specifics of the current state of the country and its position on the world stage. Presenting main material. The general trajectory of the time series of the level of economic security of Ukraine for the period 2010-2018 significantly repeats the trajectory of the time series of the level of economic growth, except for 2013, in which the trajectories are multidirectional. There is also a slight discrepancy in the dynamics of 2017, when the level of economic security remained unchanged and the level of economic growth increased by 1%. In general, the level of coincidence of regularities of trajectories of time series of these indicators speaks about expediency of research of dependence by a method of correlation-regression analysis. The regression equation indicates a direct growing relationship between the level of economic growth and the level of economic security of Ukraine. According to the coefficient of determination, the factors of the model determine it by 85%, the influence of external factors is only 15%, which indicates a sufficient level of quality of the model and the accuracy of the approximation. The significance of the F-test 0.00042 indicates the high reliability of the results and the presence of a justified pattern in our study. Additional evaluation of the results of regression analysis was performed using Student's t-test. The test showed that the coefficients are significant at 5% significance level and the model is adequate to the original data. Conclusion. For the first time, the research proves the existence of a strong link between the level of economic security of Ukraine and the level of economic growth. Therefore, the assessment of the level of economic security in the system of factors of economic growth is justified and will form a balanced development strategy of Ukraine.