Державний борг як фактор ризику безпеки України: макроекономічний огляд

Abstract

UK: У статті проведено аналіз державного боргу України, визначено боргові ризики дероісави та їх наслідки для країни. Обгрунтовано загрозливий стан фінансової сфери економіки у зв ’язку з відсутністю великого запасу міцності в країні (до 60% від ВВП). Запропоновано заходи по зменшенню обсягу державного боргу і пов'язаних з ним ризиків. RU: В статье проведен анализ государственного долга Украины, определены долговые риски и их последствия для страны. Обосновано опасное состояние финансовой сферы в связи с отсутствием значительного запаса мощности в государстве (до 60% от ВВП). Предложено мероприятия по уменьшению объема государственного долга и связанных с ним рисками. EN: Public debt is a financial component o f modern state economy. In Ukraine in less than three last years the total public debt and publicly guaranteed debt o f the country has almost doubled - from 316,9 to 546,3 billions UAH. The public debt, beginning with the stage o f drafting, reviewing and approving o f budget indicators in terms ofpublic debt and to the stage o f actual performance o f state budget is constantly burdened with risk. There are a lot o f existing risks o f public debt: foreign currency risk, interest risk, risk o f refinancing, liquidity risk, risk o f deviation from the balance. The ratio o f total amount o f public debt and publicly guaranteed debt has a tendency to grow and made 36.6% in the year 2012. Expenditures on repayment and servicing the public debt in the period from 2008 to 2012 increased from nearly 4% level to 29,3% o f the total expenditures o f the budget and to 33,5% o f the size o f income o f the state budget. Thus, the key areas to improve the debt security o f the country are reducing risks with the help o f developing a strategy o f government debt, wh ich will allow to achieve the optimal balance between expenditures and risks. Modeling strategies o f government debts must include: ensuring exchange rate stability; effective use o f borroM’ed funds, using measures to reduce budget deficit, formation o f different ratios o f internal and external borrowings; formation o f different ratios o f borrowings at fix ed and variable interest rates; formation o f different structures o f debts by terms of borrowings; formation o f different schedules o f borrowings showings the relevant amounts and terms o f borrowings: reducing the risk assoc iated with providing government guarantees on receipt o f loans. This objectively makes it necessary to consider debt risks not only at all stages o f the budget process, but also during conduct o f transparent and prudent budget and tax policies.