Розробка алгоритму роботи комбінованої системи електропостачання з відновлюваними джерелами енергії

Abstract

UA: В статті наведено алгоритми прогнозування зміни обсягів споживання електричної енергії з централізованих та локальних джерел у складі комбінованої системи електропостачання. Розроблено залежність інтегрованого обліку погодинних, добових та сезонних змін споживання електроенергії від централізованих та локальних систем енергопостачання. Запропоновано використовувати вдосконалений метод техніко-економічного обґрунтування інвестиційних рішень на етапах формалізації технічного завдання, що базується на оцінці прогнозованих допустимих витрат на будівництво локального електропостачання, що дозволить споживачам отримати позитивний економічний ефект та зменшити кількість альтернативних рішень. EN: Algorithms of forecast changes in the volume of electricity consumption from centralized and local sources as part of a combined power supply system are presented. In the complex of tasks of energy supply, the use of renewable sources is justified in many areas of activity: energy efficiency and efficiency of fossil fuels used for centralized energy supply; reducing the share of energy in the cost of agricultural products and the impact on the environment. Renewable energy has its own peculiarities, for example, more expedient use in local integrated energy supply systems. The relevant features and directions should be taken into account both in autonomous use and in the construction of combined power supply systems. The dependence of integrated accounting of hourly, daily and seasonal changes in electricity consumption on centralized and local energy supply systems has been developed. It is proposed to use an improved method of feasibility study of investment decisions at the stages of formalization of the technical task, based on the assessment of projected allowable costs for the construction of local power supply, which will allow consumers to have a positive economic effect and reduce the number of alternative solutions. The total discrepancy of the dependence, which interprets the amount of electricity consumption by different groups of consumers of the power supply system, does not exceed 5%, which allows us to recommend it for: forecasting electricity consumption according to current, regulatory and theoretical load schedules, regardless of the nature of their change; determination of daily volumes of energy consumption with the power supply system and the local system as part of the combined power supply system, regardless of the terms of use of renewable energy sources; determination of the power of power plants of local systems, automation devices, etc. It is determined that the proposed approach to the comprehensive substantiation of cases for the use of renewable energy sources, based on the original technical and economic indicators, algorithm, methodology and software for their calculation, allows to reduce the number of options and determine the positive and negative aspects of the functioning of the combined power supply system already at the first stages of the technical and economic assessment of the efficiency of its implementation.